When France was named the host for Euro 2016 just over six years ago, they had one of the top national teams in the world. Then the 2010 World Cup happened. The players mutinied against manager Raymond Domenech, the fans mutinied against the players, and the whole program fell apart at the seams.
What a difference six years can make. Les Bleus have returned to form under new coach Didier Deschamps, who captained the winning sides at the 1998 World Cup and Euro 2000. France is a co-favorite with Germany at +325 to add this year's European Championship to their trophy collection. They're also –375 favorites to win a very winnable Group A. And France still has enough betting value to be worth a look during their Group Stage matches.
Roman Holiday
As the hosts, France get to open Euro 2016 on June 10 with a match against Romania at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis. There are many fine national teams in Europe, enough to make it worth expanding the tournament to 24 teams instead of 16, but Romania isn’t exactly the pick of the litter. They're No. 33 on the World Football Elo Ratings, several steps behind their No. 22 FIFA ranking. France is favored at –345 to beat Romania, with the Tricolorii pegged at +1050 and the draw at a chunky +355.
That's not the easiest Group Stage match for France. They'll face Albania on June 15 at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille, and the Blues are laying heavy chalk at –500 to Albania at +1400 and the draw at +600. Albania aren't just minnows, they're plankton at No. 55 on the Elo ratings – again, well behind their FIFA ranking at No. 42.
Nati by Nature
If there's any team that could give France a bit of trouble in Group A, it's Switzerland. La Nati have had their moments, including a 1-0 win over Spain at the 2010 World Cup. This will be the last match of the Group Stage for both teams, and there might not be anything left on the line when they meet June 19 at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille. Perhaps the draw will be the right pick at +280, instead of France at –145 or Switzerland at +425.
Even here, Switzerland could be overvalued at No. 15 on the FIFA rankings compared to No. 26 on the more reliable Elo charts. They're still miles ahead of Romania and especially Albania, but when it comes to betting value, France remains the clear choice of the four Group A squads. At least for now; a strong performance at Euro 2016 will show the soccer world that Les Bleus are back in town.
*Odds as of June 2, 2016