Throughout the NFL Playoffs, from the Wild Card Round up until Super Bowl LII, Bovada’s Head Oddsmaker, Pat Morrow, will be providing his expert betting insights for every game – which can be seen below. Every Thursday, excluding the week of January 22nd, Pat will be updating his insights to ensure you have the inside scoop before each round kicks off.
Make sure to follow us on Facebook and Twitter for more betting insights and matchup previews, and to get notified once Pat’s new set of insights are in each week.
Super Bowl LII: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Insights
Carson Wentz was having an MVP season before a knee injury took him down. The dropoff form Wentz to Nick Foles has been significant with estimates that Wentz is worth an additional three points on the spread, if healthy. Nick Foles temporarily silenced the doubters this postseason, completing 78% of his passes and averaging 299 yards. His O/U for passing yards on Sunday is set at 242.5 and he’s the second largest favorite for MVP at +325.
Former Patriot LeGarette Blount has quietly been one of the better running backs this season, leading the Eagles to the best interior yards per carry in the league. While the revenge factor isn’t totally in play with his former team, Blount was quick to point out that “We ain’t no homies”. Bount has moved from 80/1 to 33/1 for MVP betting, representing one of our biggest liabilities.
The Eagles boasted one of the best defenses in the league this season, led by Fletcher Cox. He’s also got the lowest payout odds of a defender for Super Bowl MVP at 33/1. His O/U for tackles and assists sits at 2.5 yards. The key to beating Brady is getting pressure while playing a strong man-to-man defense and the Eagles are more than up to the task.
New England Patriots Betting Insights
In seven previous Super Bowl starts, Tom Brady has completed 67% of his passes while averaging 296 yards per game. His O/U for passing yards on Sunday is set at 289.5. He’s also the odds-on-favorite for Super Bowl MVP at -110.
While Gronkowski’s health has been a bit of a question mark in the media, all expectations at Bovada is that he’ll be healthy and at close to 100% for the game. His O/U for receiving yards is 75.5 and he’s currently sitting third on the MVP odds at 9/1.
Despite the Patriots consistent success, Bovada has actually needed them to win and cover in three of the last four Super Bowls. The line opened at 5 and has been bet down to 4.5 with more than 60% of the betting handle currently on the Eagles.
National Anthem Betting Insights
- The beauty of the Super Bowl is that you can lock in a win before the game even starts. While the coin toss is a traditionally popular bet, that’s pretty boring for ol’ Pat Morrow. Betting on the national anthem has become increasingly popular in years and the handicappers were presented with a unique scenario this year as P!nk, as far as we know, has never sung the National Anthem before. We’ve posted the O/U at 2 minutes with early betting favoring the over.
Live Betting Insights
- If you just miss getting in your bets by kickoff, be sure to check out in-game live betting for Sunday’s game. Bettors took advantage of the Jaguars early success in the AFC Championship game, betting the Patriots as high as +350 in-game as the Jaguars went up by double digits early. And who can forget last year’s Super Bowl when the Patriots charged back from being down 28-3 with moneyline odds at 10/1 in-game? This oddsmaker still has nightmares.
*Odds as of February 1st, 2018