There's no question Brazil is the class of Group B at the Copa America Centenario. They've got arguably the best offense in the world, they're third overall in the World Football Elo ratings behind Argentina and Germany, and at press time, they're the second favorites behind La Albiceleste at +450 on the Centenario futures market. But Brazil isn't quite as good as the name on the front of the uniform suggests. They could end up sweeping their Group Stage matches, but betting on their opponents instead could be worth the risk.
The Canaries in the Coal Mine
That goes double for Brazil's opening match against Ecuador. They'll meet June 4 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, with Brazil favored heavily at –120 compared to Ecuador at +350 and the draw at +245. La Tricolor is one of the best value picks on the Copa America futures market at +3300; they're No. 14 on the Elo ratings, and second behind Uruguay in 2018 World Cup qualifying out of the CONMEBOL region.
One of the biggest problems with Brazil is the absence of Neymar. Ranked the third-best player in the world by The Guardian in late 2015, Neymar was left off the team in order to appease FC Barcelona – Neymar will be allowed to play in the Olympics instead. Add the thigh injury suffered by Douglas Costa (who will be replaced by 34-year-old Kaka), and the Canarinhos won't be nearly as potent up front as people are used to.
Like an Inca
Peru will be the next-toughest test for Brazil in Group B. They'll wrap up the Group Stage on June 12 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough; Los Incas have risen from No. 36 to No. 23 on the Elo rankings over the past year, easily outstripping their FIFA World Rankings spot at No. 46. Recreational bettors are more likely to think in line with the flawed FIFA rankings and bet accordingly.
There's only so much the underdogs can do, though. Haiti are minnows in Group B, and the entire Centenario. FIFA is being far too kind to them in the rankings at No. 71, well ahead of their Elo rating at No. 86, but numbers aside, it's unlikely Haiti will pose much of a threat to Brazil when they face each other June 8 at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando. The Grenadiers are last in Group B for World Cup qualifying out of CONCACAF. Their national program was devastated by the deadly 2010 earthquake. We'll see how much progress they've made when they meet Peru on June 4 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, with Haiti priced at +600, Peru at –200 and the draw at a hefty +300.
*Odds as of May 31, 2016