South America was bound to take over the soccer world at some point. Unlike the traditional European powers, their population base is increasing hand-over-fist. Poverty levels are decreasing, allowing for better health, training and education. And they really, really love their soccer. Five of the Top 8 teams in the World Football Elo Ratings at press time are from the CONMEBOL region, including three of the Top 5. They'll all be in action next month in the Group Stage of the Copa America Centenario.
So will the United States. They're hosting this prestigious tournament for the first time in its 100-year history, and they'll be in tough versus the best of the best – starting with the opening match of the Centenario on June 3. The No. 35-ranked Americans will face No. 5 Colombia in Group A action at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara; at press time, Team USA is a slight favorite at +155, with Colombia at +185 and the draw pegged at +215. Home-field advantage will play a factor, but US soccer has seen better days, while Colombia is near their historical peak.
Sky Blue
The top two teams in Group B collide June 4 when No. 3 Brazil meets No. 14 Ecuador at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. Brazil isn't quite the powerhouse they once were, cycling through coaches over the past six years and failing to qualify for the 2017 Confederations Cup. Ecuador, like Colombia, has never been better; however, La Tricolor did lose 1-0 to the United States in a friendly on Wednesday. They should still have value at +385 compared to –130 for Brazil. As always, the draw is worth a look at +255.
Group C is the weakest of the four groups at the Centenario. It should also give us one of the most competitive Group Stage matches when No. 8 Uruguay meets No. 10 Mexico in Glendale on June 5. Uruguay, captained by the incredible (and polarizing) Luis Suarez, won the 2011 Copa America and finished atop the CONMEBOL table for 2018 World Cup qualification. Mexico has yet to lose in five matches this year, putting up five clean sheets, but that was against very weak competition in the CONCACAF region. They should be overvalued at +160 with Uruguay at +185 and the draw at +210.
Business will pick up in Group D, where the incredible rivalry between No. 2 Argentina and No. 7 Chile resumes June 6 in Santa Clara. Chile beat Argentina in penalties at the 2015 Copa America final in Santiago, so Lionel Messi and La Albiceleste will be on a mission next month. But are they overvalued at –120? Maybe not; Chile (+350) lost 2-1 at home to Argentina in World Cup qualifying back in March. Perhaps the draw is the better choice at +250 on neutral soil.
*Odds as of May 27, 2016