Just like that, Iceland's fairy-tale run at Euro 2016 has come to a halt. The new darlings of European soccer went into the quarter-finals undefeated, but Iceland was a +700 underdog for Sunday's match with France (–225), and Les Bleus exploded with four first-half goals en route to a 5-2 victory. It was a well-deserved win for the host nation; France is a +175 co-favorite with Germany to win the championship.
France will face Germany in the semi-finals, after Die Mannschaft (+120) survived Saturday's emotional penalty shootout against Italy (+280). Each side missed three of the first five attempts before Germany prevailed 6-5, cashing in the draw at +200. At press time, Germany is a tiny underdog at +180, with France at +175 for Thursday's match at Stade Vélodrome (3 PM ET, ESPN) in Marseille, with the draw once again pegged at +200.
Wales Watching
The other semi-final doesn't have quite the same cachet. Portugal will be at Stade de Lyon on Wednesday (3 PM ET, ESPN), but they have yet to win a match in regulation at Euro 2016; the Seleção were +120 favorites going into last Thursday's quarter-final match with Poland (+290), and it was the draw paying out at +200 when Portugal won the penalty shootout 5-3.
Wales stunned Belgium (–145) 3-1 on Friday to pay out as +450 underdogs. They'll take over the role of Cinderella now that Iceland has been eliminated, but Wales is “only” a +290 underdog at press time for their match versus Portugal (+115), with yet another draw in regulation looming large at +205.
Boot Sector
It's safe to call Thursday's France-Germany tilt the “real” Euro 2016 final. Here's how the remaining four squads stack up on the futures market:
|
France |
+175 |
|
Germany |
+175 |
|
Portugal |
+330 |
|
Wales |
+800 |
France is hoarding a lot of betting value at this point. Wales is certainly worth a look in their semi-final, but when it comes to the championship, Les Bleus are in prime position for the first time since 2000. They'll face a German side that will be without defender Mats Hummels (suspension), striker Mario Gomez (hamstring), and midfielder Sami Khedira and could also end up missing midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger.
France's outburst against Iceland also has the hosts on the verge of claiming the Golden Boot for most goals scored at Euro 2016. Antoine Griezmann (–140) leads the way with four goals, while Olivier Giroud (+700) and Dimitri Payet (+900) are tied with Wales superstar Gareth Bale (+700) at three goals apiece. Gomez was the only German player with two goals. Cristiano Ronaldo (+800) and Nani (+5000) have two goals each for Portugal, and Hal Robson-Kanu (+5000) is in the mix for Wales with two goals of his own.
*Odds as of July 4, 2016