I'm gonna knock him out inside four rounds, mark my words.” That’s the bold prediction Conor McGregor made last Tuesday during the first day of his promotional tour with Floyd Mayweather Jr., ahead of their August 26 superfight in Las Vegas. McGregor has made a habit of knocking out opponents in the UFC; the reigning Lightweight champion is 21-3 lifetime in mixed martial arts with 18 KOs, seven of those inside the Octagon, and McGregor often makes good on his predictions.

That’s inside the Octagon. McGregor has never graced the squared circle as a professional, and on August 26, he’ll face Mayweather, who has yet to lose a fight in the pro ranks at 49-0. That hasn’t stopped the props market from lighting up like a Christmas tree. At press time, there are 49 different ways of  betting on this fight, including the method of victory and when it will happen.

Lights Out

Most bettors are on McGregor (+375) to win this fight straight-up, but most of the money is on “Money” Mayweather, and that dynamic should hold true within the burgeoning props market. McGregor fans are placing small wagers on their hero winning by KO/TKO/DQ (+450), and hammering the “Inside 4 Rounds” special, where the charismatic Irishman is +700 to win in Round 1, 2, 3 or 4.

The wiseguys have other ideas. They like Mayweather (–550) to win, of course, and they’re getting value at that price; Mayweather was available at –750 before this promotional tour got underway and McGregor made his prediction. It’s widely assumed in boxing circles that Mayweather will be able to avoid McGregor’s early attack, and at press time, the former five-division world champion is –140 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.

There is at least one bet on the boxing props list that serves both communities. The over/under for August 26 is 11.5 rounds, with UNDER priced at –210, and this could be one of those rare instances where Mayweather doesn’t end up going the distance, as he did in his last seven fights. McGregor has worked the maximum five rounds in the Octagon just once, against Nate Diaz last August, and that was 25 minutes of combat. They’ll be almost 35 minutes into this superfight by the time they reach the middle of the 12th round – if either man hasn’t knocked out the other before then.



*Odds as of July 18, 2017