College Football Odds Breakdown

It’s way too early to write off the Alabama Crimson Tide. Yes, they did lose 46-41 to the LSU Tigers on Saturday, dropping the cash as 5-point home favorites on the NCAA odds board and putting their College Football Playoff streak in jeopardy. But the Tide have been here before. They made the CFP two years ago despite losing the Iron Bowl to Auburn, and in both 2015 and 2016 despite losing to Mississippi.

Alabama’s loss does give some other quality teams a ray of hope that their names will be called this year. There are some very important games coming up on the NCAA football lines at Bovada Sportsbook; we’ll see which undefeated and one-loss teams will survive the following marquee matchups for Week 12.

NCAA Odds Week 12: Best Odds and Matchups

1. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 13 Auburn Tigers (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Alabama’s loss is Georgia’s gain. But the Bulldogs (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) still have to make it through to the SEC title game – and win it this time – if they want to make the Playoff, and the Tigers (7-2 SU and ATS) are not going to be an easy get at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn are getting 3.5 points on the NCAA football odds board at press time, even though they’ve played at close to the same level as Georgia this year – that’s what happens when you’re the third fiddle behind LSU and Alabama in the SEC West. Then again, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU and ATS in this series since Guz Malzahn became head coach at Auburn, and 2-1 SU and ATS since Kirby Smart first donned the headset in Atlanta.

2. No. 7 Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday, 4 PM ET, FOX)

With Penn State also suffering their first loss last week, the Gophers (9-0 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) find themselves in much the same situation as Georgia; they need to run the table from here, and they’re not going to get any help from Iowa (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), who are 3-point home favorites on what should be a chilly day in Iowa City. While the Hawkeyes have won six of their last seven meetings at 4-2-1 ATS, Minnesota has a lot more punch in Year 3 under PJ Fleck, the former two-time MAC Coach of the Year at Western Michigan.

3. No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 12 Baylor Bears (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, ABC)

The Bears (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) are probably wondering what they have to do to earn some respect. The answer is simple: Beat the Sooners (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) on Saturday. Baylor has played the weakest schedule in the Big 12 thus far, leaving Oklahoma as the more likely candidate to make the Playoff – especially as 10-point road favorites for this matchup. However, OU had trouble beating Iowa State 42-41 last week as 15.5-point home favorites, and the Cyclones have played nearly as well as the Bears this year.

4. No. 21 Navy Midshipmen at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Saturday, 2:30 PM ET, NBC)

The academy teams can be highly profitable when you bet on NCAA football, and Navy (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) has made plenty of scratch running their version of the flexbone offense under head coach Ken Niumatalolo. Sadly, the Midshipmen probably won’t get a CFP invite coming out of the American, but thanks in part to their strength of schedule, Notre Dame (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) still have a sliver of hope despite losing twice already – both on the road, against Georgia and Michigan. Their chances for Saturday look good as 9-point favorites in what should be near-freezing conditions at South Bend.

5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

They didn’t even make the first CFP rankings this year, but Clemson (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) are back in position to defend their title now that both Alabama and Penn State have taken it on the chin. It’s just a question of winning their last two regular-season games, but while the Tigers are laying 33 points on Saturday, Wake Forest (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) were a ranked team as recently as last week, and have covered four of their last five meetings despite dropping all five straight-up.