Top 10 Super Bowl LV Prop Bets

It’s that time of year again: Time to fill out your prop sheet. Proposition Super Bowl bets, where you wager on something other than the outcome of the Big Game, have become an annual tradition for football fans. You’ll find hundreds of props and specials – similar to props, and often used interchangeably – on the NFL betting lines at Bovada Sportsbook, with more being added as we get closer to kick off on Sunday, February 7 (6:30 PM ET, CBS).

Betting on NFL props for the Super Bowl generally falls into two categories: those that have to do with football, and those “exotic” bets that deal with the entertainment aspect of the game – like the famous National Anthem prop, where you bet on whether the performance will go Over or Under a certain length of time. The following Top 10 list of Super Bowl LV props covers the former category; we’ll look at some of the tastiest game, team and player props on the menu at Bovada, including the odds as they appeared at press time.

Super Bowl LV – MVP Winner

This is one of the most popular Super Bowl props on the NFL betting board. The MVP is voted on by a panel of 16 football media members, so naturally, the quarterback on the winning team usually gets chosen. With the Kansas City Chiefs favored by 3.5 points, QB Patrick Mahomes (who also happens to be the reigning MVP) is the –120 favorite, followed by Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (a four-time MVP) at +200. Given how important Tampa Bay’s defense is to their success, taking a flier on LB Lavonte David at +6600 and/or OLB Jason Pierre-Paul at +7000 could pay off handsomely.

First Touchdown Scorer

The Chiefs tend to defer when they win the coin toss, and often find themselves coming from behind, but they also have the most potent offense in the league. That’s why WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce are +300 co-favorites for this prop. The top Buccaneers on Bovada’s NFL betting lines are WR Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and RB Leonard Fournette at +450. Given the two defenses in question, Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (who also returns punts and the occasional kick) has some betting value at +1000, and Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski will be a nostalgic choice at +650.

Longest Touchdown Yardage

Everyone loves it when the quarterbacks air it out at the Super Bowl. The over/under for this prop is 45.5 yards; with Mahomes throwing a lot of baseball-style passes (his father was a pitcher in the majors) and Brady more of a game-manager – especially at age 43 – the Under could be the right call. However, you have to also take special teams into account, and Hardman did return a punt 67 yards to the end zone this year, while teammate Byron Pringle did the same on a 102-yard kick-off return.

Longest Successful Field Goal

The over/under for this prop is 47.5 yards, which is a chip shot for today’s robo-kickers. Kansas City PK Harrison Butker has one of the best right legs in the business, going 4-for-4 this year on field goals of 50 yards or longer. His counterpart, Ryan Succop, was just 1-for-2. Weather conditions at Raymond James Stadium will play a role, although the long-range forecast only calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 60s with little wind to speak of. 

Will There Be A Missed PAT Conversion?

Butker went 48-for-54 (88.9%) on his Point After Touchdown attempts during the regular season, while Succop nailed 52 of his 57 attempts (91.2%). But this will probably be a high-scoring game, given the total of 56.5 points, and this will be the first time Succop has ever played in the Super Bowl. If you think he’ll get the yips, YES is priced at +175.

Will There Be A Successful 2-Point Conversion?

Teams are going for two more than ever these days – partly because they’re smarter now, and partly because PAT attempts were moved from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line in 2015. That makes YES a tempting choice at +250, although Kansas City and Tampa Bay each attempted just three 2-point conversions this year, and the Bucs whiffed on all three. Also, if you’re going to take YES for the missed PAT prop, YES makes sense here, too, since a missed PAT could force a team to go for two later in the game.

Total Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes threw for an average of 316.0 yards per game this year, including 462 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 12. The over/under for the Super Bowl has been set at 326.5 yards; the Over is usually a popular choice on the NFL betting lines, and given the season-ending Achilles injury suffered by Chiefs LT Eric Fisher in the Conference Championships, Mahomes will probably have to throw even more often than usual to compensate.

Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady

At the other end of the field, Brady is looking at a total of 301.5 passing yards for Super Bowl LV. His average was 289.6 during the regular season, but he threw for 345 yards against the Chiefs – in part because the Bucs were down by 17 points heading into the fourth quarter, where Brady found Mike Evans in the end zone twice. If you don’t think Tampa Bay will need to come from way behind this time, take the Under, because they should have the advantage on the ground.

Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill

Kansas City’s dynamic wideout was good for 85.1 yards per game this year, but Hill exploded for 269 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 12, so you might want to take the Over on the posted total of 92.5 yards for Super Bowl LV. Keep in mind, though, that the Bucs will likely focus more of their efforts on stopping Hill – which is why Hardman has value as the first touchdown scorer.

Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski

Lastly, we have Brady’s favorite target from all those Super Bowls with the Patriots. Gronkowski has been blocking more this year for his new employers, racking up just 38.9 yards per game, but he enjoyed his best game of the season in Week 12 with 106 yards against the Chiefs. Over 29.5 yards will be a very popular bet for this year’s Super Bowl props. Check out Bovada Sportsbook for the full list of props, and we’ll see you at the big game.

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