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NFL Odds Breakdown: Super Bowl 53 Betting Favorites

This has already been one of the most interesting starts to an NFL season in recent memory. Four teams that missed the playoffs completely in 2017 have started the 2018 campaign at 2-0; that includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Ryan Fitzpatrick filling in for the suspended Jameis Winston at quarterback. FitzMagic and the Bucs even beat the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, winning 27-21 as 3.5-point home dogs on the NFL betting lines. Can they keep it up once Winston returns in Week 4?

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Tampa Bay still have a long way to go. They’re +3300 outsiders on the Super Bowl odds list at press time, a big step up from +8000 at the start of the regular season, but miles to go before they crack the following top five (including ties) contenders on the NFL futures odds market:



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New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams: +650 NFL Odds

The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) are holding steady at +650 on the Super Bowl 53 odds board, but they’ve already suffered their first loss of the season, dropping a 31-20 decision to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 2.5-point road favorites. So they did what they needed to do and acquired WR Josh Gordon from the Cleveland Browns for a fifth-round pick. Gordon has a checkered past to say the least, but when healthy and focused, he’s one of the best wideouts in football.

It’s time for some fresh blood in the title chase. Nobody has played better than the Rams (2-0 SU and ATS) through two weeks of action. Their NFL odds have taken another step up from +850 to +650, after dominating the Oakland Raiders and shutting out the Arizona Cardinals. These are two of the worst teams in the NFL this season, but LA still has the league’s best point differential at plus-54 heading into Week 3.


Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings: +900 NFL Odds

After losing to the Patriots in last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars (2-0 SU and ATS) looked like the real deal in their Week 2 rematch. They were +2200 outsiders on the NFL odds board when the season began; now they’re tied as third-favorites to win their first-ever Super Bowl. As long as QB Blake Bortles can hold it together, Jacksonville has enough stopping power to go all the way.

The Vikings (1-0-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) edged up from +950 to +900 after last week’s 29-29 tie against the Green Bay Packers, but maybe they’d be 2-0 had they kept Kai Forbath as their place-kicker. Minnesota used a fifth-round pick (after trading up) to draft Daniel Carlson out of Auburn; Carlson is a free agent at press time after missing three field goals against Green Bay, including two in overtime.


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Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs: +1200 NFL Odds

The defending champs slipped from +950 to +1200 on the NFL lines after losing to Tampa Bay, but there’s no need to panic: QB Carson Wentz has been cleared to start Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts. While Super Bowl 52 MVP Nick Foles had his moments for the Eagles (1-1 SU and ATS) during the first two weeks, Wentz is Philadelphia’s top long-term option – if he’s recovered sufficiently from his torn ACL.

The Packers (1-0-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) remain one of the most popular NFL betting commodities on the market, and their NFL betting odds are getting shorter again now that QB Aaron Rodgers has proven himself healthy – or at least healthy enough to start. Rodgers played well against Minnesota despite wearing a brace on his left knee; provided he’s under center instead of DeShone Kizer, the Packers should be fine.

Is Patrick Mahomes II already the best quarterback in the NFL? He threw six touchdown passes in last week’s 42-37 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, cashing in the Chiefs (2-0 SU and ATS) as 4-point road dogs. Mahomes now has 10 TD passes in his first three starts, an NFL record – and that’s after recording zero touchdowns in last year’s Week 17 debut against the Denver Broncos. He’d better keep it up if Kansas City wants to win Super Bowl 53, because their defense isn’t getting the job done.



*Odds as of September 19, 2018


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