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NFL Futures Betting
There are many great things about betting on the NFL, but this might be the greatest: You can bet on football all year round. Even during the offseason, you can always bet on who will win the next Super Bowl. It’s one of the more popular wagers on the NFL odds list, and you’ll find it on the NFL futures market.
What Is an NFL Futures Bet?
A futures bet, simply enough, is a single wager placed on a future event that won’t be decided right away. With NFL futures betting, you can bet on who will win each of the two NFL conferences and each of the six divisions; those particular lines aren’t always available 24/7, but Super Bowl odds never sleep. As soon as one Super Bowl ends, the next one goes up on the NFL odds board.
NFL Futures Betting Examples
At first, every single team in the league is given odds to win the Super Bowl. These are usually expressed using moneyline odds (aka American odds). A typical year might start with a team like the New England Patriots favored at +450. If you bet $100 on the Patriots and they win the Super Bowl, you earn $450 in return – or any multiple thereof. The rest of the teams will have longer and longer odds, all the way to the long shots at the bottom of the list.
As with point spreads, totals and other lines, NFL futures change as the year progresses. The sportsbook can move the odds in order to spread the action around all the different teams and limit exposure; if too much money is coming in on the Patriots, their odds can be moved from +450 to +400, for example. As well, teams that go on winning streaks will usually see their futures odds get shorter, while losing teams will become longer and longer shots – until they’re eliminated from contention and taken off the NFL betting board. Major injuries to key players can also have an effect on NFL futures odds.
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Hold Percentage in NFL Futures
Instead of collecting juice for processing your bet, the sportsbook keeps a certain hold percentage when you’re betting on NFL futures. This hold percentage will be larger than the standard –110 line you pay on a single-game wager; something closer to 20% is common with futures betting, since the book faces added exposure from those rare occasions when a long shot wins the Super Bowl.
From a strategic perspective, the betting value in NFL futures usually isn’t with the favorites or the long shots, but the teams in between. It’s not uncommon to see one of these lower-tier contenders win the Super Bowl after a short 16-game regular season, with a single game deciding each playoff round. But every once in a while, an outsider comes through – like the 2000 St. Louis Rams, who were available at +20000 before everyone found out how good Kurt Warner was. If you dream of holding a golden ticket like that, the NFL futures market is for you.
