NFL Prop Betting

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2021-22 NFL Regular Season Player Props

We’re already one-quarter of the way into the 2021 NFL regular season, which means it’s time for an update on the NFL props odds at Bovada Sportsbook. We have hundreds of game props for each matchup on the schedule, and props that run throughout the year. For instance, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are +350 favorites at press time to finish with the best regular season record, and Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is the new MVP favorite at +500.

NFL Regular Season Player Props

Bovada was also pleased to offer a full menu of player props for the entire 2021 campaign. We put five of those props in the spotlight heading into Week 1; let’s take a look at their progress with 12 games left to play.

Tom Brady Regular Season Passing TDs

The seven-time Super Bowl champion had a total of 36.5 touchdown passes for this season, with the Under tagged at –130, and Brady was well on his way to cashing the Over with nine TDs in his first two games. Then he threw just one against the LA Rams, and none against his former team, the New England Patriots. That still leaves Brady on pace to reach 40 TD passes again if he makes 16 starts this year – we’ll assume he gets the day off in Week 17 to rest for the playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes Regular Season Passing Yards

Mahomes was the only quarterback in the league this year with a total of 5,000 passing yards or more, checking in at 5050.5 yards – and like Brady, the former MVP has cooled off a bit the last two games. He’s still got 1,218 passing yards for the Kansas City Chiefs through four starts, but at this rate, Mahomes will have to play all 17 games to hit the Over; 16 will leave him short at 4,872 yards.

Davante Adams Regular Season Receiving TDs

If you had Under 11 TDs (–120) for the top receiver on the Green Bay Packers, you’re in very good shape right now. Adams has found the end zone just once this year, in Week 3 versus the San Francisco 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is still throwing at him just over 10 times per game, though, so there’s plenty of room for Adams to make a run at the Over.

Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing Yards

Speaking of running, Henry’s total of 1,555.5 rushing yards seemed like one of the easier targets to reach on our NFL props odds, given that he rumbled for 2,027 yards last year. Indeed, the Tennessee Titans are still feeding Henry the ball; he’s up to 510 yards after four games, putting him on track to top 2,000 yards again before Week 17.

TJ Watt Regular Season Sacks

The bad news for Pittsburgh Steelers fans: Watt missed Week 3 with a tender groin. The good news is he returned to face Green Bay in Week 4 and sacked Rodgers twice, making it five on the season thus far. Watt needs only eight more sacks to eclipse his total of 12.5 and pay out the Over at –105, and if he stays healthy, he should on the field a lot – that’s how bad Pittsburgh’s offense has been.

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Prop bets (short for proposition bets) have been around at least since the first professional baseball leagues began in the 1870s. But betting on football props didn’t officially take off until 1986, when Caesars Palace bookmaker Art Manteris posted odds of 20/1 that Chicago Bears defensive lineman William “The Refrigerator” Perry would score a touchdown at Super Bowl XX. With the game already well in hand, Perry found the end zone on a 1-yard plunge as the mighty Bears beat the New England Patriots 46-10.

While the Perry touchdown would end up costing Caesars Palace $120,000 in the short term, it set off a wave of NFL props betting that has yet to slow down. These days, there are dozens of prop bets available on every NFL football game, and literally hundreds of Super Bowl props. Here’s how you can get in on the action at Bovada Sportsbook.

 

What are NFL Props?

A prop bet is often a question as to whether an event that’s not directly tied to the game’s outcome will occur. The structure behind an NFL prop bet is a lot like that of spreads or totals. For props with YES/NO betting options, odds will be listed for both the YES side and the NO side. Here’s a typical prop for an NFL game:

Will a special teams or defensive touchdown be scored?
YES: +250
NO:  –325

The line in this case is expressed in the form of American odds, just like the moneyline, or the vigorish when you’re dealing with NFL spread betting. If you bet $100 on YES for the above example and someone scores a touchdown on defense or special teams, you’ll win $250. If you bet $325 on NO and one of these touchdowns doesn’t get scored, you’ll win $100 (or any multiples thereof). As with other NFL lines, the sportsbook can move the odds at any time before kick-off in order to balance the action on both sides and limit exposure. Some NFL props will only list odds for the YES side; these are usually reserved for highly unlikely events, like whether there will be a “wardrobe malfunction” during the Super Bowl halftime show.

You’ll also find NFL props that are listed much the same as NFL totals, asking you whether an event will go over or under a certain number – like how many touchdown passes the starting quarterback will throw. Other NFL props ask you to choose from a list of possible outcomes, each with its own odds attached. For a hypothetical example, here’s how the odds might appear for the famous “Gatorade” Super Bowl prop, asking which color liquid will be dumped over the winning head coach:

Yellow   1/1
Clear   7/5
Orange   4/1
Green   5/1
Red   12/1
Blue   12/1

The odds for these multiple-choice NFL props are often expressed as fixed odds, like the ones above, although American odds are also used. In this example, if Orange is the winning color, bettors will be paid $400 for every $100 they bet, or any multiple thereof. If no liquid gets dumped on the head coach for whatever reason, this prop will likely be graded as "No Action" and all monies returned – check for any such conditions listed when you bet on NFL props. Also note that some NFL props come with a smaller maximum bet than usual, especially those dealing with entertainment; a cap of $50 is common with these wagers.

 

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How to Bet on Props

NFL props fall under a few different classifications, which you can find on the NFL odds betting menu at Bovada Sportsbook:

 

NFL Player Props

These props deal with outcomes regarding a specific player, like whether the starting quarterback will throw over or under a certain number of touchdown passes.

NFL Team Props

Instead of a specific player, you’re now betting on the whole team and their accomplishments (or lack thereof), like how many touchdowns they’ll score.

NFL Game Props

Now you’re betting on something not specific to one team, like whether or not a safety will be scored in the game.

NFL Season Props

Extending the betting range from a single game to the entire season (or the remainder of the season), you can bet on NFL season props like whether a team will make the playoffs or finish the year undefeated. You can also bet on who will be the NFL regular season MVP.

NFL Specials

This term often gets used interchangeably with NFL props, but any prop bet that doesn’t fall into the other categories winds up here; for example, you can bet on who will be the next head coach for a certain team.

Again, NFL props are made available for every game on the schedule, but you’ll find the most props for the most important games – and no single game in sports is more important than the Super Bowl. The more exotic prop bets should be made for entertainment purposes only, but if you do your homework when you bet on football, you should be able to find some value bets on the NFL props market. Happy hunting.

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