Mayweather Vs. Pacquiao II Betting Preview

Mayweather Vs. Pacquiao II Betting Odds Preview at Bovada Sportsbook

 

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Odds Breakdown

Will they or won’t they? On September 15, Floyd Mayweather Jr. told the world (via Instagram) that he was coming out of retirement to face Manny Pacquiao in a rematch of their “Fight of the Century” from 2015. In the posted video, Mayweather and Pacquiao are seen at the Ultra Japan music festival in Tokyo; Mayweather then claims the fight will happen “this year,” while in Pacquiao’s Instagram post, Mayweather is heard saying the “2nd of December.”

Don’t book those tickets just yet. On September 19, Mayweather said he was going to have a tune-up match in Tokyo before facing Pacquiao. The boxing world is waiting for more details, but in the meantime, the first Mayweather vs. Pacquiao II odds are on the board at Bovada Sportsbook, and Mayweather is the clear favorite at –260 to Pacquiao’s +200. Assuming they meet, will the favorite run his career record to 51-0? Or will the challenger get his revenge after losing their first match?

 

Why Bet on Floyd Mayweather Jr.? 

It’s not easy to bet against a man who has yet to lose a professional fight. Mayweather (50-0, 27 KOs) took care of business during his first encounter with Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs), seizing control in the middle rounds and winning by unanimous decision. The judges’ score cards: 118–110, 116–112, and 116–112. Since then, Mayweather is 2-0, while Pacquiao is 3-1, dropping his WBO Welterweight title to Jeff Horn in July 2017 before taking the WBA version off Lucas Martin Matthysse one year later. That belt will presumably be on the line against Mayweather.

Another very important consideration for the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao betting rematch: Mayweather is still running the show. He and his promotional team dictated the terms of their 2015 bout, which Pacquiao and Top Rank agreed to after some negotiations. That will presumably be the case again for the rematch, although Pacquiao is no longer with Top Rank – he left Bob Arum’s team and signed with manager Al Haymon (who also runs Premier Boxing Champions) in October. If Mayweather’s the one setting the parameters of this fight, including important details like the size of their boxing gloves, that can only work to his advantage.

 

Why Bet on Manny Pacquiao? 

When these two boxers touched gloves in 2015, the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight odds were closer than they are for the rematch: Pacquiao was available at +160 after opening at +250. A bet on the underdog would pay out more this time around. Even better, Pacquiao should be healthy. He complained of a previously injured right shoulder after losing to Mayweather, and claimed that he re-injured the shoulder during the fourth round. Pacquiao would eventually have surgery for a torn rotator cuff and miss nearly a year of action.

He may be three years older now at age 39 (and turning 40 in mid-December), but at least Pacquiao is still an active fighter. Mayweather, now 41 years old, retired after beating Andre Berto in September 2015, then came back to box UFC superstar Conor McGregor in August 2017 before once again calling it a career. And Mayweather didn’t exactly mop the floor with McGregor. He needed 10 rounds to secure a TKO victory, as McGregor had success in the early rounds before tiring. A healthy Pacquiao would be much more likely to take Mayweather down.

 

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Top Mayweather-Pacquiao Props 

The buzz surrounding the 2015 “Fight of the Century” was epic – it was like the Super Bowl, and accordingly, there was a long list of Mayweather-Pacquiao prop bets on the board. There are already some boxing props available for the proposed rematch, starting with the total, which has been set at 11.5 rounds with the Over priced at –325. It would be a shock if these two fighters didn’t produce yet another 12-round decision; this bout is –300 to go the distance.

Speaking of which, the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao odds at press time have the favorite priced at –125 to win by decision or technical decision. Pacquiao is just +400 to do the same, and +400 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. This speaks to his superior punching power compared to Mayweather, an incredibly skilled defensive fighter who usually ends up winning on points. Despite his style, Mayweather is also +400 to win via KO/TKO/DQ, while the draw is listed at +1800.

 

How to Bet on Boxing 

In case you’re new to the scene, or you just need a refresher, the boxing odds you see above are listed using the “American odds” format. Mayweather is the –260 favorite on the moneyline, a fixed-odds wager where you bet on one side to win straight-up. The negative sign in front of Mayweather’s odds indicates that he’s the favorite; you’d win $100 for every $260 wagered if he beats Pacquiao. As the +200 underdog, every $100 wagered on “Pac-Man” would return $200 should he pull off the upset.

In addition to the moneyline and the aforementioned props (short for “proposition bet,” where you wager on something other than the outcome itself), you can bet on boxing at Bovada Sportsbook by placing a parlay bet. This is where you bet on the outcomes of multiple fights at the same time, anywhere between two and 12 inclusive, and if you get all your picks right, you multiply the payouts together instead of adding them up. But if any one pick doesn’t come in, the entire parlay loses. Watch as well for boxing futures, where you bet on a proposed match that hasn’t been finalized yet – just like Mayweather-Pacquiao II.

 

Mayweather-Pacquiao Betting Tips 

As a general rule, if you want to make a “sharp” bet that will give you the largest potential return on your investment, it’s a good idea to figure out which side the betting public is on – and take the other side. Most of the people in the betting marketplace are casual fans who aren’t thinking too carefully about return on investment, or the subtle ins and outs of boxing strategy. They just put a few dollars down on their favorite boxer for a little added entertainment, and when they do, the odds on the other boxer become more attractive.

In this case, Pacquiao is the more popular fighter. His odds for the first fight shrank from +250 to +160 as more and more bettors (especially from the Philippines) put their money on Pac-Man to win. Meanwhile, the price on Mayweather improved from –325 to –210. Something similar is probably going to happen for their rematch, so if you want to bet on Pacquiao, consider getting that money in now, and if you want to support Mayweather, consider waiting until closer to bell time for a better price.

Assuming both fighters go forward with their proposed rematch, you can expect to see more boxing props hit the board as the interest builds for Mayweather-Pacquiao II. We’ll also have more insight and analysis here at Bovada Sportsbook; in the interim, there are 22 other fights you can bet on at press time – including the potential bout between Mayweather and current UFC Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (+900), who challenged Mayweather to a boxing match after beating McGregor last month at UFC 229. This fight may be a long shot to actually take place, but as we’ve seen multiple times, anything can happen when it comes to Mayweather.

 

*Odds as of November 1, 2018