NFL Betting

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NFL Betting Update

Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only five or six can be considered legitimate contenders to win Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. But while the spotlight is on the Kansas City Chiefs (+450 at Bovada Sportsbook) and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650), it’s the under-appreciated teams that have the best chance of beating the NFL odds for spread betting. That’s why we’ve put together our first NFL power rankings for the month of September. Here’s our Top 10 list, followed by a quick look at the MVP odds board at Bovada as we get ready for Week 1 of the regular season. Stay tuned for updated rankings as we march towards the playoffs.

NFL Betting Power Rankings – Top 10 - September

Houston Texans Odds

There’s a classic “buy low” situation brewing in Houston. The Texans have the lowest expectation of any NFL team this year, with a regular season win total of four and the Under priced at –125. QB Deshaun Watson is still on the team, but isn’t expected to play because of the multiple civil lawsuits he faces. Tyrod Taylor is a perfectly capable Plan B, and was undervalued during his time with the Buffalo Bills.

Detroit Lions Odds

The Lions are also expected to falter this year after trading their talisman, QB Matthew Stafford, to the Los Angeles Rams for a package including QB Jared Goff. It’s a downgrade, but maybe not as much as it appears at first glance, and Goff will be protected by a quality offensive line – unheralded players who tend to get overlooked by the betting public.

Cincinnati Bengals Odds

There’s nowhere to go but up for the Bengals in Year 2 under Heisman-winning QB Joe Burrow. He has a strong receiving corps to work with in Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Their offensive line still has a lot of holes to fill, but it should still be better than last year’s. It couldn’t be much worse.

New York Jets Odds

The sad-sack Jets make for an easy punching bag, but they may have finally found their franchise quarterback in No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson, who looked very good during training camp and the preseason. The last time they had a decent quarterback was in 2015, when Ryan Fitzpatrick led them to a record of 10-6 SU and 8-6-2 ATS on the NFL odds board.

Philadelphia Eagles Odds

It’s rebuilding time in Philly. New head coach Nick Sirianni comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree in Kansas City, and spent the past two years as offensive co-ordinator for the Indianapolis Colts. Sirianni has plenty of young talent to work with. Plus, the Eagles get to play in the soft NFC East, where they were title contenders last year despite going 4-11-1 SU and 6-10 ATS.

Carolina Panthers Odds

A bet on the Panthers is a bet on QB Sam Darnold. He couldn’t quite cut it with the Jets, but Teddy Bridgewater didn’t do much for Carolina last year either, so the bar is set pretty low for Darnold. Getting through the NFC South should be a lot easier now that Drew Brees is no longer starting for the New Orleans Saints.

Miami Dolphins Odds

After so many years in the wilderness, the Dolphins are poised for a breakout campaign in 2021. Tua Tagovailoa has the tools to be a great quarterback in the NFL, as he was in college. The main concern in Miami is with their young offensive line, which, like Tagovailoa himself, has plenty of upside despite struggling at times last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is the real deal. Lawrence went first overall to the Jaguars (1-15 SU, 7-9 ATS) in this year’s draft after a stellar career at Clemson, where he beat Tagovailoa and Alabama for the 2018 national championship. He’s an instant upgrade over last year’s rag-tag QB collection of Gardner Minshew II, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton.

Denver Broncos Odds

The Broncos are one of the hidden gems on the NFL odds board. Even with Drew Lock struggling at quarterback last year, Denver went 5-11 SU and a profitable 9-7 ATS on the strength of their amazing defense. Bringing in Bridgewater should at least raise their floor for 2021; his veteran guidance could help Lock reach the next level if and when he’s called upon again.

Las Vegas Raiders Odds

It’s easy to scoff at head coach Jon Gruden and some of the draft choices his front office made, but the Raiders have a Pro Bowl quarterback in Derek Carr, and he should get much better protection this year with a healthier offensive line that welcomes first-round pick Alex Leatherwood (No. 17 overall) from Alabama.

Odds to Win 2021-22 NFL MVP 

Patrick Mahomes +500

The 2018 MVP is the quarterback of this year’s Super Bowl favorites, which instantly makes him the person most likely to win this award.

Josh Allen +900 

Allen is the breakout star quarterback for the Bills, who are third favorites at +1100 to win Super Bowl LVI.

Aaron Rodgers +1000

The Green Bay Packers’ quarterback is the reigning and three-time MVP, and the Packers are fourth on the Super Bowl odds list at +1200.

Kyler Murray +1400

The No. 1 overall pick in 2019 has already made the Pro Bowl with the Arizona Cardinals, but he’ll have to fight through a very tough NFC West to get any MVP votes.

Russell Wilson +1400

Speaking of which, Wilson was the early MVP choice last year after getting off to a hot start with the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll have a bit more talent to work with in 2021, much of it on the offensive line.

Tom Brady +1400 

He may have won his seventh Super Bowl ring last year, but Tampa Bay’s defense is the real MVP on this team.

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