UFC Betting

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UFC 231 Betting: Jedrzejczyk vs. Shevchenko

Every once in a while, the UFC gets it wrong. They’ve got another big pay-per-view event coming up December 8 at Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena (formerly the Air Canada Centre); Max Holloway and Brian Ortega are pencilled in as the main event for UFC 231, fighting for Holloway’s Featherweight title. But that’s not the fight most fans are looking forward to. That would be the co-main event between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Valentina Shevchenko for the vacant Women’s Flyweight Championship.

No offense to Holloway and Ortega, but Jedrzejczyk is the star of this show. And her chances of taking home her second UFC title look pretty good, judging by the Jedrzejczyk vs. Schevchenko odds at press time. But this fight could be more competitive than the betting market would suggest. Here are the top fights for December 8 in Toronto as they stand:

 

UFC 231 Odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valentina Shevchenko

This is a battle between two formidable opponents. Jedrzejczyk (15-2 lifetime, 9-2 UFC), who lost the Women’s Strawweight title to Rose Namajunas last year in a major upset, is the +230 underdog on the UFC 231 fight odds at press time. Shevchenko (15-3 lifetime, 4-2 UFC), a former challenger in the Women’s Bantamweight division, is making the move down to 125 pounds for this title opportunity. She’s —300 to win.

If Jedrzejczyk wins this bout, she’ll become the first female fighter to claim UFC titles in two different weight divisions. But she’s already faced Shevchenko three times in amateur Muay Thai tournaments, and Shevchenko won all three matches – although their most recent fight was 10 years ago. And Jedrzejczyk’s star lost some of its luster when Namajunas took four out of five rounds in their rematch to retain the Strawweight title. Don’t be too surprised if the underdog walks away with the Flyweight belt.

 

UFC 231 Odds: Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega

The “main event” is an even closer matchup on paper, and the UFC 231 betting odds have it slightly in the champion’s favor at –135. Holloway (19-3 lifetime, 15-3 UFC) is one of the best fighters there is, checking in at No. 5 on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings, and he’s on an impressive 12-fight winning streak that includes back-to-back TKO victories over Jose Aldo for the Featherweight title. Ortega (14-0, 1 NC lifetime; 6-0, 1 NC UFC), a former two-time champion on the California indie circuit, has yet to lose inside the Octagon, earning performance bonuses in each of his last three fights.

 

Stylistically, this bout is Holloway’s to lose. He has a three-inch height advantage over Ortega, and he strikes with more volume and more accuracy than the challenger. Ortega does have seven submission victories to his credit, but he only has a 14% success rate on takedowns, while Holloway has stuffed 83% of takedown attempts in his career. Perhaps Ortega can use his ability to switch stances and keep Holloway off balance enough to walk away with the title.

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UFC 231 Odds: Claudia Gadelha vs. Nina Ansaroff

The second of three women’s matches on this card is in the Strawweight division, and it pits Gadelha (16-3 lifetime, 5-3 UFC), the No. 3-ranked fighter (in the division) at 115 pounds, against No. 11-ranked Ansaroff (9-5 lifetime, 3-2 UFC). Gadelha is the favorite at –270, with a 2nd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu; two of her three losses were to Jedrzejczyk, including a split decision in 2014. Ansaroff has a 3rd-degree black belt in taekwondo, and she’s on a three-fight winning streak, although she has yet to face the same level of competition as Gadelha. She could pull off the upset here at +210 with her takedown defense and her striking.

 

Other UFC 231 Betting Odds

There’s one other fight for UFC 231 with odds at press time: Thiago Santos (19-6 lifetime, 11-5 UFC) is a –185 favorite to put away Jimi Manuwa (17-4 lifetime, 6-4 UFC) in Light Heavyweight action. Manuwa is higher up on the division ladder at the moment, checking in at No. 7 on the UFC’s rankings to Santos at No. 15; however, Manuwa is four years older at age 38 and has lost back-to-back fights, while Santos won his last two bouts. Stay tuned to Bovada Sportsbook for more fight odds and UFC 231 prop bets as this card continues to take shape.

 

 

Bet on the UFC

 

How to Bet on the UFC: UFC Betting Explained

There was a time when boxing was the biggest combat sport in the world. These days, more people are betting on mixed martial arts – especially when it’s the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) putting on the show. This promotion has skyrocketed since its first pay-per-view card in 1993, back when it was no holds barred; new rules and regulations have turned the UFC into a sweet science all its own, allowing the company to spread across the globe. This UFC Betting 101 introduction will show you how to bet on MMA at Bovada Sportsbook, from basic wagers to simple strategies you can use to knock out your competition.

 

Betting on the UFC

The UFC holds dozens of events every year, with somewhere around a dozen fights on every card. The major events are pay-per-views, and smaller shows are aired on cable television and UFC Fight Pass; each card will feature a main event, often a title fight for one of the promotion’s 12 weight divisions, as well as a co-main event. Here are the different ways you can get in on the UFC betting action:

 

UFC Moneyline Betting

This has been the standard way to bet on combat sports for well over a century. UFC moneyline odds are a form of fixed-odds betting, where you choose one of the two fighters to win straight-up, no point spread attached. In North America, these odds are typically expressed using the American odds format. To better understand exactly what are UFC moneyline odds, let’s look at the famous August 2016 Welterweight rematch between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz at UFC 202:

Diaz              +120
McGregor       –150

Unless it’s a pick’em, every fight has a favorite and an underdog. The favorite will always have a negative sign next to their MMA odds; in this matchup, McGregor was the –150 favorite, paying out $100 for every $150 wagered (smaller and larger bets are allowed). The underdog usually has a positive sign next to their odds, although that’s not always the case with two closely matched opponents. In this fight, Diaz was the +120 underdog, paying out $120 for every $100 wagered.

 

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UFC Parlay Betting

A parlay bet is a combination bet that lets you group together a number of individual moneyline wagers. If you get all your picks right, your payout increases exponentially, but if you get a single pick wrong, the parlay loses. You can put anywhere between two and 12 moneyline bets in your UFC parlays. The more lines you add, the higher the potential payout. So how do UFC parlay bets work? Let’s say you wanted to combine the McGregor-Diaz fight at UFC 202 with the co-main event, a Light Heavyweight bout between Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Glover Teixeira:

Teixeira           +175
Johnson           –225

Here, Johnson was the –225 favorite, while Teixeira was the +175 underdog. If you parlayed Johnson together with McGregor, congratulations: Both favorites won their fights. Betting $50 on each of them separately would have earned you $44.44 in profit, but since you parlayed them instead, you earned $140.74. You can calculate your potential payouts by multiplying the odds for each fight in your parlay, either by hand or with an online parlay calculator. Even better, Bovada Sportsbook will do the math for you when you’re filling out your bet slip.

 

UFC Futures Betting

If you’ve been stumped trying to figure out just what is a UFC futures bet, we’ve got you covered. In general, the UFC odds for each card will be made available well in advance, but every once in a while, speculative odds will be published for a fight that may or may not take place in the future. This can happen when two really big-name fighters appear to be on a collision course. If there’s enough interest in their potential fight, UFC futures odds will go up on the board. You’ll find them under “UFC Futures” when you open the UFC menu at Bovada Sportsbook.

Betting on UFC futures looks exactly the same as betting on the moneyline. There will be a favorite and an underdog, and the odds for each fighter will adjust depending on how much action they draw. Once their prospective fight is made official, those odds will be taken off the UFC futures board and put on the regular market.

 

UFC Prop Betting

Aside from the moneyline, UFC prop bets (short for proposition bets) are the most popular way to bet on MMA’s most popular promotion. Rather than picking a straight-up winner, UFC props ask you to wager on things like method of victory (KO/TKO/DQ, submission or decision), and whether the fight will go OVER or UNDER a certain number of rounds.

Much like the Super Bowl, betting on UFC props can be both fun and profitable. The more popular the fight, the more props you’ll have at your disposal; you might be able to bet on whether a fighter will win during a specific round, or whether they’ll win by unanimous decision. Don’t forget to look for these props anytime you’re considering a bet on the UFC.

 

UFC Betting Tips

Think you know your way around the Octagon better than most people? If you’ve been following the sport for some time, you’ve probably developed a solid base of knowledge that can help you beat the UFC odds. But even if you’re betting on MMA for the first time, you can gain an advantage by remembering two simple rules of thumb:

Everything You Need To Know About Betting on The UFC

1. Styles make fights. Every UFC fighter comes from a certain MMA background. Brazilian jiu-jitsu is common, but a well-rounded practitioner will bring other martial arts to the table, be it wrestling, boxing, karate, Muay Thai, sambo, judo, or other forms. Ideally, your chosen fighter will be strong in the two basic elements of MMA: striking, and grappling. They’ll also be strong on both offense and defense. If you see a fighter who’s gifted at ground-and-pound going up against someone who isn’t skilled at defending from underneath, that’s a mismatch that you can take advantage of.

2. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. There are 12 different weight classes in the UFC: eight male, and four female. The lightest division is Women’s Strawweight (up to 115 pounds), and the heaviest is Heavyweight (male, 206-265 pounds). As a rule, the lighter divisions have more of their fights end in decision, while the heavier classes will see more knockouts. You can use this knowledge, combined with the styles and past records of each fighter, to take advantage of the UFC props. For example, a Women’s Strawweight bout will end in a decision roughly 70% of the time; put two defensive strikers in the Octagon together, and a decision becomes even more likely.

 

Because the UFC has become so popular, detailed biographies of most fighters are available on the internet, showing their MMA backgrounds, which belts they’ve been awarded, and the results for all their previous fights – both in MMA and other combat sports. A little research will go a long way in helping you make sharper UFC picks. In the meantime, you now have everything you need to get started betting on the UFC. For more information, check out the FAQ and Help guide at Bovada Sportsbook, and feel free to contact Customer Service if you need further assistance.

 

*Odds as of November 8, 2018