Ahead of week 9, NFL expert Corey Parson (aka @TheFantasyExec) gives us his picks and insights. There are a number of good looking Underdogs on the card this week. Be careful with those teams; sometimes your best bet is to fade a trendy Underdog.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans (+14) Total: 45.5
The first game of week nine is projected to be an easy victory for the Philadelphia Eagles. Over the course of the last two seasons the Eagles have been asked to lay double-digit points spreads three times. In those games they are 2-0-1 ATS, 3-0 on the Money and 3-0 to the Over.
Pick: Eagles -14
Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7) Total: 42.5
Despite coming off a tough loss last week people are feeling optimistic about the Panthers. The Bengals are also coming off a tough loss. This game opened up with the Bengals as 7.5 point home favorites. The public is all over Carolina in this spot. Two weeks ago the Bengals hosted the Falcons as 6.5 point favorites and easily covered the spread. The same will likely happen this week.
Pick: Bengals -7
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (+3.5) Total: 49.5
In their last five trips to Detroit the Packers are 2-3 on the Money Line and 0-5 ATS. I know it's tough to put your money on the Lions but there is no way you can lay points with this version of the Packers.
Pick: Lions +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) Total: 48
For the second straight week, the Las Vegas Raiders are a short road favorite. Last week they suffered a 24 point loss to the Saints. I have given up on the Raiders. A month ago the Jaguars were a trendy pick to win the AFC South. After five straight losses that noise has settled down. Over the last 2 seasons the Jags are 3-8 ATS and on the Money Line at home. They are also 9-2 to the Under in those games.
Pick: Under 48
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3) Total: 49.5
The NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS this season; tied with the Giants and Cowboys for the top ATS marks in the league. So far this season road favorites are 22-26-1 ATS. The Chargers are 2-0 ATS as road favorites this season. I like the Chargers this week but if Cordarelle Patterson suits up for Atlanta I have more faith in the Over than Chargers -3.
Pick: Chargers -3 or Over 49.5
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (+12.5) Total: 46.5
Things have been going well this season for the New York Jets but this week the Jets step up in weight class when the big, bad, Buffalo Bills stomp into town. Last season as 13.5 point favorites the Bills went into MetLife and beat the Jets 45-17. That will likely happen again this week.
Pick: Bills -13.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (-5.5) Total: 39.5
The hardest thing to do when betting on the NFL is to go against what your eyes just saw the previous week. Last week the Colts suffered a late loss to the Washington Commanders while the Patriots used a dominant second half to get a road win over the Jets. This week the Patriots are 5.5 point home favorites vs. the Colts. There is no way I can lay that big of a number with New England.
Pick: Colts +5.5
Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears (+5) Total: 45.5
The Dolphins will be looking for their third straight victory when they travel to Chicago to face the Bears this week. Miami was just in Detroit this last weekend. Despite having a 3-5 record the Bears have played better as of late. Justin Fields is getting coached better and it is showing on the field. This will be a tough game for Miami. I like the Bears to cover the number and I would drop something on the Money line. It would not surprise me if the Bears won this game.
Pick: Bears +5
Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders (+3.5) Total: 43.5
The Vikings have a 6-1 record on the season yet most NFL fans think the Vikings are fools gold. The Commanders have won three straight games but let’s not get too cute with Washington. Under Ron Rivera the Commanders are 6-6-1 ATS and 4-9 on the Money Line as home Underdogs. The Under has also cashed in 69% of those games.
Pick: Under 43.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2) Total: 49.5
This is the toughest game of the week to handicap. It’s hard to imagine the Arizona Cardinals being the favorite in this game. One shop is reporting close to 70% of the tickets and handle backing the Seahawks, yet this line has not moved. Back in August when the books first put a number on this game the Cardinals were 5.5 point favorites, so there has been considerable movement to this number. I think the Cardinals are a sharp play.
Pick: Cardinals -2
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) Total: 42.5
The Rams and Buccaneers are supposed to be the class of the NFC. That has not been the case so far this season as both teams have struggled. Tampa has lost three games in a-row while the Rams have lost three of their last four. There is still time for these teams to get back in it and winning this game would be the start. Over the last two seasons the Rams have done most of their damage on the road. They have a 8-3 Money Line road record. In last season's NFC Division round game in Tampa the Buccaneers were 3-point home favorites, just as they are this week. I think the Rams get another victory in Tampa.
Pick: Rams +3
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) Total: 46.5
Football Night in America is in Kansas City this week where the Chiefs are 12.5 point favorites vs. the Titans. I don't know about you but this number seems too high. So far this season home favorites on Sunday Night Football are 5-1 on the Money line but only 2-4 ATS. The Titans should cover this spread.
Pick: Titans +12.5
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