College Football Odds Breakdown

Okay, now the Alabama Crimson Tide are in trouble. After losing their first game of the college football season in Week 11, Alabama lost QB Tua Tagovailoa (dislocated hip) for the rest of the year during Saturday’s 38-7 win over Mississippi State. The Tide covered as 21-point road favorites on the NCAA odds board, but without their star quarterback, ‘Bama might not make it into the College Football Playoff – even if they win out from here.

You can definitely write off the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Baylor Bears. They fell from the ranks of the undefeated last week; making the Playoff would have been difficult even with zero losses, but it’s virtually impossible now. That leaves a small handful of high-leverage games on the Week 13 NCAA football lines at Bovada Sportsbook, starting with a very important Big Ten tilt that could throw a monkey wrench in the CFP rankings.

NCAA Odds Week 13: Best Odds and Matchups

1. No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday, 12 PM ET, FOX)

The Big Ten has been the toughest conference in the FBS this year, and the Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) might be the best team in the country – even if the LSU Tigers hold down the No. 1 spot in the polls. However, the Nittany Lions (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) are going to be the toughest test OSU have faced all season. While the NCAA football odds board at press time has the Buckeyes laying 18.5 points at the Horseshoe, Penn State has covered the spread in each of their last three meetings, and are 4-1 ATS since James Franklin took over as head coach.

2. No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)

The Aggies (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are back in the rankings after four straight wins at 3-1 ATS, but they’re 14-point road dogs against the Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS), who have jumped over Alabama for the last spot in the CFP rankings. Georgia still have to win their next two games – and presumably the SEC title game – if they want to make the Playoff, so they certainly can’t afford to take Texas A&M lightly. Believe it or not, this will be the first time these teams have met since the Aggies made the move from the Big 12 eight years ago.

3. No. 12 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)

It always feels strange picking a basketball-branded school when you bet on NCAA football, but the Hoosiers (7-3 SU and ATS) have made a pile of money this year, even cracking the Top 25 last week before losing 34-27 to Penn State as 15-point road dogs. This Saturday, they’re getting 9 points from the Wolverines (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) in a matchup that Michigan hasn’t covered since Jim Harbaugh became their head coach in 2015. They needed overtime to get the win in each of their last two trips to Bloomington.

4. Texas Longhorns at No. 13 Baylor Bears (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, FS1)

The Bears (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) could have made a New Year’s Six bowl had they remained undefeated. Now they’re pointed at something like the Alamo Bowl, and Baylor could get downgraded further if they don’t show up against the Longhorns (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS), who have won each of their last four games against Baylor at 3-1 ATS. The good news for BU fans: Texas has dropped their last two road games, although they split the cash in the underdog role. That will be the case again in Waco with the ‘Horns pegged as 6-point road dogs.

5. UCLA Bruins at Southern California Trojans (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

It’s a relatively quiet week in the Pac-12, but this rivalry game between the Bruins (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) and Trojans (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) should be worth the price of admission. It’s the last game of the regular season for USC; they need a win here, and Utah to lose one of their remaining two contests (at Arizona this week, then vs. Colorado), to win the South Division and go on to the Pac-12 title game. UCLA would love to play the spoiler and ring the Victory Bell as 14-point road dogs.