Euro 2016 hasn't event started yet, and the defending champions are already moving up the odds board. Spain has improved from +550 at the open to +500 at press time; they're still in third place on the futures market, though, behind France (+300) and Germany (+400). Spain has also moved from –165 to –185 as the favorite to win what should be a competitive Group D.
La Roja have been at or near the top of international soccer since their breakthrough win at Euro 2008. But they've fallen a step behind Germany the past couple of years, and the betting value should be with their opponents during the Group Stage. Croatia (+300 to win Group D), Turkey (+900) and the Czech Republic (+1000) are all good enough to give Spain a run for their money.
Crescent Fresh
In theory, Croatia has the best chance of beating the champs, but winning might not be the first priority when they meet June 21 at the Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux. This will be the last Group Stage match for Spain and Croatia; a draw could benefit either or both sides, so the betting odds are off the board at the moment.
Turkey, on the other hand, is a +550 underdog for their June 17 match with Spain (–190) at the Stade de Nice. The Crescent Stars are on the ascendancy under manager Fatih Terim, who began his third tour of duty in 2013 after successful runs at Euro '96 and Euro 2008. They've moved from No. 40 to No. 17 on the World Football Elo Ratings over the past year, armed with a strong midfield featuring FC Barcelona great Arda Turan. The draw at +315 may be a safer bet, or you could give the goalless draw a spin at +900 on the Correct Score prop, but don't dismiss the possibility of a Turkish win.
Paris in the Springtime
Then again, perhaps it would be better to wait for Turkey's last game versus the Czech Republic, June 21 at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens. Betting odds have been made available, and Turkey is a slim favorite at +160 to the Czechs at +175 and the draw at +230. The Czechs lost 2-0 at home to Turkey during Euro 2016 qualifying, and the Crescent Stars will have winger Gokhan Tore in uniform after he finishes serving his suspension.
The best Group D match should be the opener between Turkey and Croatia on June 12 at Parc des Princes in Paris. They had an epic quarterfinal match at Euro 2008, which Turkey won on penalties after some late-game dramatics. Turkey is a fairly big underdog at +270 to Croatia's +115, with the draw priced at +220, but the Blazers are a bit wayward these days under coach Ante Cacic. He'll need to circle the wagons if Croatia doesn’t want to repeat what happened with Raymond Domenech and France at the 2010 World Cup.
*Odds as of June 7, 2016