Cristiano Ronaldo is pretty good at soccer. He's won the Ballon d'Or three times (2008, 2013, 2014), and he's led Portugal to deep runs at both the World Cup and the European Championships. But the end is near; Ronaldo is 31 years old now, and he appears drained after helping Real Madrid win the Champions League. Portugal is a third-tier contender at Euro 2016, priced at +1600 to win the championship and –140 to win Group F.
These odds are largely dependent on Ronaldo’s performance, so if he’s not firing on all cylinders, Portugal could crash out in the Group Stage, just like they did at the 2014 World Cup. Portugal will face tough competition in Austria, and maybe Iceland, too. Hungary? Not so much.
Das Boot
Austria (+190 to win Group F) have rocketed up the World Football Elo Ratings this past year, moving from No. 38 to No. 21 under the watchful eye of manager Marcel Koller. Das Team is stacked with talented players, including veteran forward Marc Janko, who's worth a look at +4000 to win the Golden Boot for this tournament. Austria's pace could cause big problems for Portugal when they meet June 18 at the Parc des Princes in Paris; Portugal is a +115 favorite at press time, with Austria at +265 and the draw pegged at +225.
Portugal also has to take Iceland (+700 to win the group) seriously in their opening Group Stage match, June 14 at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Etienne. Iceland is in their first European Championships, after upsetting the Netherlands home and away during qualifying; they have a unique system under co-coaches Lars Lagerback and Heimir Hallgrimsson, and they could certainly earn a draw versus Portugal at +280. If you're feeling frisky, Iceland is +575 to win compared to Portugal at –175.
If there's a saving grace for Ronaldo and the Selecção das Quinas, it's their match against Hungary (+1400) on June 22 at the Stade de Lyon. Hungary could be the worst team at Euro 2016, despite being ranked three points higher than Iceland at No. 43 on the Elo ratings. The Magyars have been cycling through coaches in recent years, and were fortunate to qualify for Euro 2016 out of a very easy group – they still needed to beat Norway in a playoff to advance. Hungary is +500 to beat Portugal (–170) in Lyon, with the draw unlikely at +300.
*Odds as of June 9, 2016